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Recession Relapse in Russia
August 29, 2012 00:46

No need to be anxious about a possibly looming crisis, says a former Putin aide, Russia is already in the midst of one.

Russia has sunk back into recession, entering its double-dip, and has been wading through it for nine months now, according to Andrey Illarionov, senior presidential economic advisor in 2000-2005. A recession is formally defined as at least two consecutive quarters of economic decline.

Illarionov’s statement, posted on his blog, relies on the trends in the so-called real output index, comprising some 60 percent of the GDP. In July, it dropped 0.4 percent compared to June, and fell 1.7 percent from its high in November 2011. These data differ from official figures provided by the Federal Service for State Statistics, in part because they are based on year-to-year comparisons.

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The index, which is produced by the national Institute of Economic Analysis, gives the big picture behind fluctuations in such vital areas as industrial production, exports and imports. Except for industrial production, other key indicators have been down, with agriculture being hit hardest.

The table below is a representation of the changes in percentage points.  

Indicators

July 2012 vs November 2011

July 2012 vs peak

Real Output

-1.7

-1.7

Industrial Production

1.2

0.0

Agricultural Output

-19.6

-21.6

Commercial Freight Turnover

-0.4

-1.3

Capital Investment

-9.6

-9.7

Retail Trade Volume

0.8

-0.4

Exports (June 2012)

-10.0

-10.0

Imports (June 2012)

-3.8

-4.6

Real Disposable Income

1.0

0.0

Andrey Illarionov is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity. In 1994 he founded the Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) as an independent, non-profit organization focusing on economic policy and market economy.

If you need more data on where the Russian economy stands now and its prospects, feel free to contact Russia-IC by clicking here.




Author: Mikhail Vesely

Tags: economic crisis Andrey Illarionov real output index Institute of Economic Analysis Cato Institute 

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