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The Russian Rouble Crashed Down
November 28, 2013 23:31


(Source: http://allomone.ru.com)

Securing of the euro in the global exchange market and the weak spots of the Russian banking system crashed the rouble down to the four-year minimum. This is in no small part due to the recall of the license of the Master-Bank, which made the corporate clients pass to dollars.

The Russian currency will continue to fall in price. The dollar rate may reach 37 roubles in the next year, the experts warn. Following the results of today's trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the U.S. dollar “climbed” above the level of 33 roubles at the official rate again, for the second time in November and for the first time since September. On 28 November it was set at 33.0041. Despite the fact that the rouble fell against the U.S. dollar by less than 2 kopecks, as compared with the previous day, its value against the Central Bank’s dollar-euro basket broke the four-year minimum.

The European currency “grew heavier” over the last two weeks from November 12, it went up in value against the rouble already by 1.17 roubles, or by 2.7 %. The euro has also almost reached its four-year record, its value was only higher for the last time on December 11, 2009 (45.07 roubles). The value of the dollar grew by more than 2.6 roubles against the level of the beginning of the year, the euro grew by more than 4.6 roubles.

The Central Bank has once again shifted the range of the exchange rate band being the tool for weakening the rouble management and made it 5 kopecks higher; and now it makes up 32.65-39.65 roubles. “The bank sells about $ 200 million a day at the current levels” - the head of the conversion operations department of the Absolut-Bank Anton Tokmakov said. The Central Bank changes the boundaries of the floating exchange band for the sixth time this month and for the tenth time this autumn, the last change of such kind took place quite recently, on November 21, the financial analyst of “Lionstone Investment Services” Aleksandr Grishanov added. “The demand for rouble is low due to the end of tax payments period and decrease in the prices of WTI oil that reached its minimum for the last six months” - the analyst of “BCS Forex” Dmitry Tremasov said. “Now it is supported by taxes and high oil prices, but the decrease will continue in December” - Tokmakov predicts. “The mid-term trend of the rouble weakening is still in force”. “The end of the year is traditionally the peak of foreign debt payments by the Russian companies, which supports the demand for the currency” - the director of “Alfa- Forex” Sergei Kharinov adds.

These trends are also overlayed by the scandals in the Russian banking sector. The fears that the licenses may be recalled from other major players after the Master-Bank, force the corporate sector to transfer their assets into dollars, Kharinov said. The dollar can grow up to 37 roubles in 2014, this dynamics can be supported by the gradual closing up of the U.S. “QE3” program, which will have a positive impact on the dollar, Grishanov concludes.




Author: Anna Dorozhkina

Tags: global exchange market Russian banking system Russian currency   

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