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Rouble Fall
August 21, 2015 16:07


Today’s trading on the Moscow stock exchange began with a sharp fall of the rouble. Already at the opening of the main trading session the exchange rate of the dollar exceeded the level of 67 roubles for the first time since February 11; by 10:50 MSK it amounted to 67.04 roubles, which is 70 kopecks higher than at Wednesday’s closing.

The exchange rate of euro grew by 1.35 roubles today, up to the level of 74.75 roubles - the highest level since the beginning of February. In the afternoon the dollar rose to 67.5 roubles, euro –to 75.3 roubles. The official exchange rate of the US dollar as of August 21 makes up 66.9608 roubles, the official euro exchange rate - 74.4738 roubles.

The behavior of the rouble continues to be determined by the dynamics of oil prices. According to the analyst of the “Russian Capital” Bank Anastasia Sosnova, the quotes of the North Sea Brent crude oil pressed the local level of support on Wednesday at around $ 48 per barrel, in this connection you can expect a fall in the value of hydrocarbons down to $ 45 per barrel in the near future.

The decline in oil prices continued at today’s trading. According to Bloomberg, the price of the nearest contract for the supply of Brent crude oil has fallen to its lowest level since early February - $ 46.9 per barrel, which is almost 0.5% lower than at Wednesday’s closing.

The decline of oil prices most strongly affects the economies with raw materials orientation, in particular Russia, Brazil, Kazakhstan.

That decline in oil prices was the key reason for the deterioration of the economic forecast for Russia by ING. Yesterday the investment bank decreased its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2015 from 3.3% down to 3.5%.

“Despite the modest signs of stabilization of some indicators, the economic forecast remains complicated, while the price of oil may delay the improvement in the dynamics of GDP growth” - the review of the bank specified. In this situation investors prefer to increase investments in currency, especially in the anticipation of large external payments.

Nervousness in the market has become stronger after the government of Kazakhstan worried about the decline in oil prices devalued the national currency.


Author: Anna Dorozhkina

Tags: rouble economic crisis    

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