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Russian Economic Activity Is Still Declining
June 15, 2016 11:41


The Russian economy is sinking into recession and continues to approach bottom. This is stated in the research by the Development Centre of Higher School of Economics (HSE).

Economic activity is still declining after seven months of neutral dynamics. “In fact, there was no full-scale rebound from the “bottom”, and the economy continues to go into recession” - the HSE expert Nikolai Kondrashov said. If economic activity remains at the level of April, the fall of GDP in 2016 will surpass 1.5 percent. “However, we will not be surprised if some of the April statistics is revised or the May statistics shows growth” - Kondrashov said.

According to the HSE forecast, the decline in GDP will amount to 0.8 percent this year with the average price of Urals oil at $ 45 per barrel. The economy will fall by 1.6 percent at a price of $ 35. Processing industry is experiencing a slight recovery, but it can hardly be considered a sign of economic recovery, like in crises 1998-1999 and 2008-2009 when industry pulled GDP out of recession, as the research stresses.

At the same time the effect of support of production with import substitution and budgetary expenditures is already fading. On June 8 the World Bank revised its economic forecasts for Russia in the direction of improvement - Russia’s GDP will shrink by 1.2 percent in 2016, and in the next year it will increase by 1.4 percent.


Author: Anna Dorozhkina


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