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Economic Development Ministry Gives Economic Growth Forecasts
October 26, 2016 15:13


Economic growth in Russia will be slow in 2017 after overcoming the recession - an average of 2 percent per year. This is about 1.5 times lower than the world rates and the country will be closer to the poorest nations of the world in its performance indicators.

This was reported by the “Vedomosti” newspaper on Thursday, October 20, with a reference to the long-term forecast of social and economic development until 2035 which was sent to the Finance Ministry by the Economic Development Ministry in order to create budget plans.

The most optimistic variant of development - the agency calls it “basic plus” - suggests slow growth in incomes. They will reach the level of 2013 only in 2021, as the newspaper notes. Oil prices will continue to grow slowly, and in 2020 the price per barrel will make up 57 dollars, and in 2030 -  70 dollars. No one in the Ministry expects any sharp fall in quotations on the hydrocarbon market. The basic conservative forecast is based on preserving of oil prices at the level of $ 40 per barrel, even though the Ministry of Economic Development considers this option unrealistic.

Nevertheless, the federal budget is calculated on this basis.  The agency experts assume that in case of the conservative scenario the GDP growth rate will not exceed 1.8 percent. The third variant of development – “scenario with reforms” - also involves the preservation of quotations around $ 40, but expects growth in work performance and the pace of investment. The improvement in the business climate and support of non-resource exports should result in growth of companies revenues by reductions of costs, as the experts believe.


Author: Anna Dorozhkina


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