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New Method of Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Developed in Far East of Russia
January 29, 2017 09:25

A new method of short-term earthquake prediction has been developed by scientists of the Far Eastern Federal University. It is based on the analysis of data from the already operating network of sensors, which detect horizontal and vertical shifts of the Earth's crust areas.
The method developer, a professor at the Natural Sciences School of the Far Eastern Federal University (FENU), seismologist Semyon Gordeyev reported to Tass about his invention.
"We suggest using fiducials (weather) stations and seismic sensors that measure their elevation and horizontal displacement. A network of such stations arranged in a particular order on the vast territory of an island or a mainland area monitors controlled markers' offset, which is a harbinger of seismic movements," - the scientist explained.
According to him, lots of the earthquakes near the large islands of the Pacific Ocean are caused by the passage of so-called caverns - large cavities formed in the mantle - under the Earth crust. These cavities can be gigantic, and comparable to major islands in size. They are practically not dangerous for continents, but even the largest islands may "fall" into them almost entirely, with changing their vertical position by 1-1.5 meters in a short time.
"Such a fall by 1.5 meters can cause a catastrophic earthquake comparable to the earthquake in Japan in 2011," - he said.
At the same time the first signs of such "a fall" can be registered by sensors two or three days before the earthquake. Thus it enbles us to wrn the service in hrge and the public about the possible dangers of earthquakes and tsunamis.
"The proposed forecast method is not based on indirect signs of seismic events, but on the study of these geophysical processes leading to earthquakes. This forecasting technology is offered for the first time not only in Russian but  in the international practice as well" - Mr. Gordeyev said.
The method is suitable only for short-term earthquake prediction in the larger islands, such as the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and the like, the scientist pointed out.



Author: Vera Ivanova


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