Add to favorite
Subscribe to our Newsletters Subscribe to our Newsletters Get Daily Updates RSS

How to Predict Tornadoes?
May 31, 2007 14:01

Scientists from Russian HydroMetCentr (chief weather predicting institution in the country) tell what they do to develop technique for predicting these natural disasters, which doesn’t exist yet.

Destructive tornadoes are often called “natural weapons of mass destruction”, since they sweep everything off their way, having no mercy for both living and non-living beings. We regret to admit that neither Russian, nor foreign scientists have a reliable method for predicting tornadoes and twisters well in advance – in 36 or ever in 12 hours before it happens. A certain situation often greatly depends on weather forecaster’s experience and intuition.

Scientists know that tornadoes form from cumulo-nimbus clouds, having mainly vertical orientation, under conditions of powerful convection. Nevertheless, forecasters almost never give storm warnings about such destructive events, because twisters tend to happen in the same places very rarely, even if convection is quite active.

Russian weather researchers have several stages of predicting where twisters and tornadoes are likely to appear. First stage is finding areas with powerful flaws, where wind speeds reach 20 ms and more, which is done 12, 24 and 36 hours in advance. For this purpose scientists use online method for predicting strong winds’ velocities, based upon considering extensive atmospheric parameters. Said technique, developed by weather professionals, is based on statistical analysis of hydrodynamic models of short-term weather predictions and succeeds in various territories of Russia and Ukraine. Briefly speaking, the map is covered with equal probability lines, which show areas, where dangerous winds can be expected.


When experts predict extremely high wind speeds, exceeding 35 ms, there’s almost 100% probability of twisters and tornadoes appearing in this area, the authors of the research say. Meteorological think-tank suggests using an expert system for twister forecast amendment in given areas. Mentioned system relies upon large amount of well-known long-term qualitative characteristics of dangerous meteorological situations and atmospheric parameters, common for twister formation.

Said parameters and characteristics form a knowledge base, consisting of wide range of rules for tornado formation under various conditions with given confidence factor, which is calculated every time, when addition information arrives. Meteorologists claim that the system, described above, is capable for self-learning.

Twister and tornado knowledge base wouldn’t have been full without information about clouds, which form said cataclysms. To get this important information, scientists use images of clouds, broadcasted by satellites, orbiting our planet. Satellite images of clouds, which preceded tornadoes in various regions, are valuable examples, which scientists from Russian HydroMetCentr use to explain how to recognize hazardous natural phenomenon.

    Russian Science News
Kizilova Anna

Tags: Russian scientists Russian nature Russian weather   

Next Previous

You might also find interesting:

Antarctic Bacteria will Fly to Outer Space The Nobel Prize in Literature 1970 Meteorologists have Found Connection Between Record-breaking Cold Weather in The U.S. and Warm Winter in Russia Russian Plans for Moon Exploration Approved Russian-American Space Cooperation Becomes Controversial

Comment on our site

RSS   twitter      submit

Komi Republic  Gostiny Dvor  Kirillo-Belozersky Museum  Russian Stage Directors  Ecocenter  Kamchatka  Russian Cinema  Flashmob  Rosa Khutor  Picnic Afisha   Fabio Capello  Lipetsk   Chebarkul Meteorite  Peterhof  Moscow  active holidays in Russia  Artmosphere Biennale  Russian fairy tails  Russian tourism  Mercedes-Benz Fashion Week Russia  Russian places of interest  terrorism  Exhibitions in Moscow  Zheleznaya Mountain  Russian ballet dancers  Veliky Novgorod  Orest Kiprensky  The Mountains Of Adygea   Exhibitions in Vladimir  Adler  Ecopath   Russian business  Vinzavod  St. Petersburg  ecology  Vinyl Records  Russian New Year  UNESCO World Heritage Site  Anna Kournikova  elections in Russia  Johnny Hallyday  Rock Music  Russian science  Russian Railways  Stage  Dagestan  Russian scientists  Russian tourist destinations  Russian Museum  Russian economy 

Travel Blogs
Top Traveling Sites