Experts of the Stolypin Institute of Economics of Growth predict the onset of a technical recession in the Russian economy in 2019. The Ministry of Economic Development earlier warned of a possible recession due to the growth of consumer lending, but only in the year 2021.

      In the first quarter of 2019, the growth of the Russian economy was estimated at 0.5%. The experts of the institute believe that the success of the largest enterprises and the public sector influenced the growth of the economy. At the same time, the economic activity of small and medium-sized businesses is decreasing: in the first half of 2019, the number of employees in the SME sector decreased by 1.5%, and the number of small and medium-sized enterprises - by 7-8%. At the same time, the number of people employed in micro-enterprises increased by 6.7%; According to researchers, this dynamic is associated with the transition of some small companies to the category of micro-enterprises.

      "Given the current economic policy (tight tax policy and tight monetary policy) and the weak effect of national projects, a technical recession in the economy can be fixed already in 2019, and not in 2021, as predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development," the authors of the study suppose.