The Central Bank expects the economy to decline by 4-5 % by the end of the year, Kirill Tremasov, head of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy department said.

      The decline was 3.6 % in the third quarter, while it is expected to be 5 % in the fourth quarter, Mr. Tremasov added. "The estimate suggests that the dynamics  will deteriorate in the fourth quarter. The third quarter was 3.6 %. In the fourth quarter, it is likely to be 5 %, perhaps even a little deeper," Mr. Tremasov said at the meeting of the RSPP Financial Industry Commissions (quoted by Interfax) adding that, over the  year, the decline is likely to be closer to 4 %. At the same time, the economic recovery that was observed in the third quarter was "stormy" in terms of consumer demand, Mr. Tremasov said.

      “Especially in retail: we have actually returned to pre-crisis levels, although there is a big failure in services and the recovery will take a longer period. This sharp recovery, supported by both fiscal and monetary policy, is now paused due to the impact of the second wave of the pandemic. Moreover, the influence goes both through external channels and  internal ones,” he said.