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Russian Economic Forecasts
December 9, 2014 01:46


The World Bank (WB) raised its forecast for economic growth in Russia in 2014 from 0.5 to 0.7 percent. The forecast for 2015 has been reduced to zero, instead of 0.3 percent growth of the September forecast.

This was reported by TASS referring to the quarterly economic survey of the World Bank. The main reason for the sharp increase in the forecasts by WB is called the unexpectedly large growth of volume of Russian exports against a decline in imports due to the sharp devaluation of rouble in the recent months.

“The weakening of the Russian currency may stimulate the processes of import substitution in Russia, which will accelerate the growth of production” – the survey noted. According to World Bank, the main threat to economic growth in 2015 is oil prices forecast which has reduced to $ 85 per barrel, compared to 99.5 dollars in the September forecast of WB. Earlier, on December 2 the Ministry of Economic Development reported that the Russian GDP is expected to fall by 0.8 percent in 2015. Earlier the Ministry of Economic Development forecasted that gross domestic product of Russia would grow by 1.2 percent in the next year. This year the Russian economy will grow by 0.6 percent, according to the agency.

Previously the experts of the international rating agency Standard & Poor's stated that Russia’s GDP will grow by 0.3 per cent in 2014, while the growth in 2015 could reach 0.6 percent. The basis of these forecasts is the average cost of Brent crude oil at $ 90 per barrel, as well as the absence of further sanctions against Russia. The Bank of Russia, in contrast, lowered the estimated growth of Russia’s GDP for this year from the previously expected 0.4 percent to 0.3 percent in the updated version of its monetary policy (MP). The Central Bank believes that economic growth rate in 2015 will be zero (0.9-1.1 per cent in the previous September version of the MP).

Author: Anna Dorozhkina

Tags: World Bank Russian economy Russia International sanctions  

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