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HSBC: Russian GDP Will Fall To 3.5%
January 19, 2015 17:22


The British banking conglomerate HSBC toughened its forecast on the fall of Russia’s GDP to 3.5%, according to Bloomberg.

In October 2014 the bank predicted the contraction of the Russian economy by 1%. In general, HSBC believes that economic growth of the 13 oil-exporting countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East will slow down to 1.8% in comparison with the October forecast of 2.6%.

According to the estimate of HSBC, the world’s largest oil exporter Saudi Arabia will face a deficit of 11% of GDP. In October the bank reasoned from the fact that the Saudi budget would be surplus. Economic growth in the kingdom will slow down to 2.8%, which will be the minimum level since 2009.

The second largest Arab economy - United Arab Emirates - will grow by 3.1%, as compared with 4.9% in 2014, according to the forecast. In the short term Turkey will benefit most of all, compared with other oil importers in this region, as HSBC analysts think.

In particular, inflation in the country will slow down: the bank lowered its full-year forecast of this indicator from 7.2% to 6.2%. HSBC estimates were based on the average price of oil “slightly above $ 60” in the current and the next years.

The prices of Brent oil supplied as of March 15 ranged from $ 48.23 to $ 49.48 per barrel in London trading on January 20. Oil prices have decreased over the last year almost twofold. The situation is aggravated by the increase in the United States production up to a maximum rate in the last 30 years and the refusal of OPEC to reduce their production quotas.

Author: Anna Dorozhkina

Tags: Russian economy Russia International    

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