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Economic And Geopolitical Consequences Of the US Elections
November 12, 2016 23:18


Russia is potentially a major beneficiary of the victory of Donald Trump in the elections in the United States, wrote the analysts of "Renaissance Capital" and Ecstrat. The say that easing of Western sanctions against Russia is getting possible already in 2017.

The prospect of easing sanctions is the main idea of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sanctions may be reduced in the coming months, "which will allow Russian companies finance the businesses freely," says the London-based chief investment officer at emerging markets of Barings Plc, Michael Levy.

Trump said that he would consider the possibility of recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and lifting of economic sanctions against Russian companies and industries.

Although Trump victory hit the prices of risky assets, including oil, Russia "has adapted to relatively low oil prices on the corporate level," the company's oil and gas sector remain undervalued, states Mostak of Ecstrat. The geopolitical context of Trump presidency would mean more American isolationism and less intervention in foreign affairs that would weaken NATO, and Russia will be able to strengthen the relative positions in Europe, he said. "This will push the euro zone to reboot with Russia and likely lead to the lifting of EU sanctions as US support is no longer guaranteed," - he writes.
In the EMEA region “ruble will benefit the most from the potential acquiescing to Putin's regime by Trump. Besides, reinstallation of the regional balance of power in favor of Russia is possible," wrote analysts of Societe Generale (quoted by Bloomberg).


Author: Anna Dorozhkina


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