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Progress or Regress
April 30, 2015 13:01


An emergency situation happened to the ship “Progress M-27M” with the Banner of Victory and other symbols of the celebration on board coincided with the cancellation of registration of “The Party of Progress” in Russia. This fact was noted and actively discussed by the blogosphere, as well as another circumstance – the supervision of the disorderly space industry by the Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin. 

Progress M-27M

“Progress M-27M” was “victorious”: in addition to 2.5 tons of food, water and scientific equipment, it was carrying a cargo of St. George’s ribbons and a copy of the Victory Banner, which was to be spread at the International Space Station on May 9. The symbols of the Great Patriotic War were placed on the nose fairing of the rocket. 

The controversial information received during the day intermittently told about obtaining the telemetry, as well as about failure to obtain it. The problem was that the attempts of connecting to the ship were made only within the radio visibility of Russian stations. However, thanks to the alternative radio line, it was possible to get the records from the camera used during docking to the station. The video showed that the Sun and the Earth interchanged their places and frequency in 2 seconds. It became evident that the ship was in an uncontrolled spin. The reason of the faults and spin is yet unknown. Some blame it on the third stage of the rocket, others – on the equipment on board the ship “Progress”, but it is useless to try to guess.


“They write that the Launch Control Centre is ready to destroy the “Progress” with the Banner of Victory on board that went out of control. What does “to destroy” mean? Are they going to destroy the Victory Banner? Are they afraid that it will fall on the enemy’s territory?” - Andrei Malgin asks.

“By the way, it is interesting that “The Party of Progress” of Navalny was denied the registration and that the ship “Progress” missed the ISS (“uncontrollably rotating” around its axis) - is there any connection? There is certainly one between the prohibition of the party and the theft at the “Vostochny” cosmodrome - there undoubtedly is one. Our “Soviet road to space” (with allowance for import substitution of electronics) becomes all the more unpredictable. Not only “Progress”, but the whole country is “uncontrollably rotating”, going to hell. The Victory Banner also goes in that direction due to the defect in the rocket with the symbolic name “Soyuz” (“Union”).

... What a wonderful symbol: “The Banner of Victory” falling from the sky because of the degradation and incompetence of “winners”. “If they announce regular self-destruction of “Progress” with the Banner of Victory on board, it will be the recognizance of complete collapse of the government system of the country even for our irresponsible times” - Ivan Starikov writes.

When and where will “Progress” fall?

“Progress” will gradually lower its orbit in the several next days, the ship should be completely burned up in the upper atmosphere layers from 7 to 11 May. At the same time separate fragments of the spacecraft may reach the Earth. Their approximate crash site will be determined by the specialists from the Launch Control Centre later.

According to the Command of North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD), the height of “Progress” location is currently only 120.5 kilometers at perigee. This means that the ship is already interacting with the Earth’s atmosphere and begins to be destroyed. However, this information was not confirmed by the representative of the Launch Control Centre Igor Burenkov who said that the orbit of the spacecraft was much higher.

Earlier it was supposed that the pieces that did not burn in the dense atmosphere layers would fall to the Earth on May 3-4. The zone of possible fall of the debris include the entire territory between 52th parallels of the northern and southern latitudes. According to “Snob” citing an anonymous source, the debris of the ship “Progress” can fall on the territory including all countries of Europe located to the south of Denmark, the countries of the Americas to the south of Canada, as well as Russia (to the south of Moscow) and Middle East countries. 

What could cause the fault?

The faults of the spacecraft launched from the “Baikonur” cosmodrome with the help of the “Soyuz-2.1a” rocket on April 28 at 10:09 were noticed when incomplete telemetry data volume was received during the first circuit around the planet. This could be due to the failure of the two antennae of the “Kurs” system designed for determining the distance from the truck to the Earth and its angular speed. 

Total Damage

The total damage from the loss of “Progress”, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to five billion roubles (about 97 million US dollars).



Author: Anna Dorozhkina

Tags: Alexey Navalny     

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